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There's Something You Should Know About Paul Ryan's Balanced Budget Claim ...
This week, Rep. Paul Ryan introduced a new "Path To Prosperity" that would see medicare get basically privatized, taxes cut, and the budget balanced. The nut is this chart, which shows how quickly the...
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RUMBLE: Here's What You Missed In This Week's Epic Wall Street Bull-Bear Battle
Holy cow! All of the biggest bulls sharpened their horns and the biggest bears pulled out their claws this week. Back in December, Wall Street's top strategists were timid and cautious when our stock...
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MAULDIN: A Random Walk Through The Data Minefields
"I speak the truth not so much as I would, but as much as I dare: and I dare a little more as I grow older." - Michel de Montaigne (influential writer of the French Renaissance) This Friday finds me...
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ECRI's Recession Call Weakens For The 10th Straight Time, But We Are Now In...
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) came in at -0.4 in today's public release of the data through March 16th. This is the tenth consecutive...
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Wall Street's Analysts Are Finally Starting To Perk Up
It's pretty ironic. Wall Street's analysts have a reputation for being too bullish on stocks. In fact, Reuters' Nishant Kumar and Lawrence Wright had a big write-up about this on Thursday. However,...
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DAVID KOTOK: We Are In Uncharted Waters
David Kotok just broke out the lost-at-sea imagery to describe the current investment environment. Wiring in from Paris, where he's attending the fifth-annual Risks International conference, the...
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Hey, Everyone, The Great Bond Bull Market Is Finally Toast
EQUITIES may be enjoying a bull run but the government-bond market has turned sour. Having bottomed at 1.67% in September, the yield on the ten-year Treasury bond has risen to 2.38%, with the sell-off...
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Guess What? Analysts Are Delusionally Bullish Again...
JUST when you thought the market narrative was set for the year, the mood seems to change. We were in a "risk on" mode, with equity markets rising and bond markets falling, based on the idea that the...
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Check Out The Positively Absurd Assumption That Bullish Analysts Are Making...
Over the long haul, stocks tend to gravitate around earnings. Earnings, meanwhile, tend to gravitate around revenue--which is to say, corporate earnings average about 6% of corporate revenue and move...
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UBS: Mark Your Calendars, September 22, 2011 Was A Historic Turning Point In...
From UBS economist Larry Hatheway: September 22nd 2011. Mark that date in your calendars. That is the day the secular bear market in US Treasuries began. On that date, ten-year Treasury yields made...
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GOLDMAN: Sorry Wall Street, Here's The Truth About What's Going To Happen To...
As Henry Blodget pointed out earlier, analysts are wildly optimistic about corporate profit margins right now. Despite the fact that margins are at record highs, analysts see them going higher! This...
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Gun Sales And Gun Stocks Are Going Nuts As Obama's Re-Election Odds Improve...
We'd heard a few times lately that the gun stocks (mostly Ruger and Smith & Wesson) had been surging lately, thanks to strong gun sales, but we have to thank Eddy Elfenbein for alerting us to how...
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Why Everyone Needs To Stop Worrying About The Coming Corporate Margin Collapse
The matter of record high corporate profit margins has been a hot subject for debate all week. GMO's James Montier kicked it off in his note "What Goes Up" which features this unforgettable chart,...
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A Huge Sign That The Economy Has Avoided Disaster
Over at The Bonddad Blog, the pseudonymous New Deal Democrat is out with the latest look at the weekly high-frequency data. This part really stands out: The ICSC reported that same store sales for the...
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A Beautiful Visualization Of How The Labor Market Changed After The Great...
This is a great chart from Dave Altig. Click to enlarge. Basically, what's going on is, any dot above the diagonal line represents an industry where job growth is faster now than it was pre-recession....
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John Paulson's Newest Setback: A Military Coup
2011 was a famously rough year for hedge fund king John Paulson, and unfortunately 2012 isn't working out so hot either. Late last year he lightened up on financials, while exposing himself further to...
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The Nightmare Of The European Auto Industry
Europe with its relatively affluent population of 500 million has turned into a nightmare for the auto industry. And the R-word—restructuring—unpalatable and almost illegal as it is in Europe, is...
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Why Women Workers Have Done Worse Than Male Workers Under Obama
Barack Obama spoke to a Women's group today, so Mitt Romney's press secretary Andrea M. Saul thought she'd poke him with this fact. So is it true that women workers have done way worse than men under...
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If You Think Apple Has A Disproportionate Impact On The Stock Market, Then...
Most experts are quick to point out that the S&P 500's surge has been largely due to Apple's 56% year-to-date gain. It's true. The $590 billion company makes up for around 4% of the index, writes...
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HSBC's Chief Economist Presents A Cautionary Tale For Europeans Who Want...
German chancellor Angela Merkel recently said it would be a political mistake to let Greece leave the eurozone, but many still expect it might happen. Now, Stephen King, HSBC's group chief economist...
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