This Sunday, Russia will go to the polls to vote for a new president.
Well, when we say new, perhaps we mean old. Vladimir Putin, currently Russia's Prime Minister, is widely expected to return to the position he held from 2000 to 2008, and many see the current president, Dimitry Medvedev, as little more than a puppet for the former KGB strongman.
However, the election is important, in that for the first time within the Putin period, a significant opposition movement has sprung up after accusations of corruption in December's parliamentary elections — thousands of protestors have hit the streets, an anti-corruption lawyer has become a figurehead, and even the owner of the New Jersey Nets is getting involved.
With that in mind, we asked 11 experts - will anything actually change after March 4?
"Putin will be more reform-orientated than generally perceived"
Ivan Tchakarov is the chief economist at Renaissance Capital, the leading independent investment bank operating in Russia, the CIS, Central and Eastern Europe, Africa, Asia and other high-opportunity emerging and frontier markets.
"We think that Putin (assuming he wins the Presidency as broadly expected) will be more reform-oriented than generally perceived for two key reasons.
"First, critical macroeconomic challenges, including the uncomfortable prospect of running twin deficits by 2014-2015, are compelling the country to reform. The twin-deficit problem (fiscal and current account) lays bare the need to improve Russia’s business climate in order to attract the requisite foreign financing. Putin understands that his political survival depends him pressing ahead with admittedly cautious reforms. Reading the leaves on authorities’ intentions is a perilous game, but in our view, a new and more open frame of mind is now taking hold in the Kremlin.
"Second, the additional incentive to open up the political system created by the recent protests only adds to our optimism that Russia is set on a course to becoming a much more democratic and less corrupt country, in line with its growing income levels. Despite the fact that the protesters are a minority, they have the capacity to set trends and form public opinion. The central thesis of the high probability of Russia turning into a full democracy is only gaining strength. The greatest risk now is not of Russia becoming yet another cradle of revolutionary fervor, but of foreign investors succumbing to deeply unfounded speculations of Russia becoming an inherently unstable place, and ignoring an increasingly attractive investment case."
Ivan previously wrote of his experiences at a meeting with opposition leader Alexei Navalny, which you can read here >
"[Putin's Regime] won't give up without a fight"
Luke Harding is the former Moscow correspondent for the Guardian. His book describing his experiences, Mafia State, was released last year and can be purchased here from Amazon.
"The current consensus is that Vladimir Putin is doomed - and that it's only a matter of time before his regime crumbles. But despite the extraordinary protests against his rule, I don't think he's finished yet.
"The problem is that there is no simple mechanism for forcing Putin out, and no casual relationship between the massive street demonstrations and the ultimate demise of his regime. After 12 years in power, Russia has no independent institutions left that could conceivably tell Putin his time is up. Moreover, in recent months - with his slur that the protesters are American stooges - we've seen Putin retreating further from any kind of reality. I have no doubt that he and his team are worth billions; any new president will seize these assets and put Putin in jail. He knows this. Logically, then, he has to stay in power forever. His regime may be corrupt, morally bankrupt and increasingly illegitimate, but it's not going to give up without a fight."
"The March 4 presidential election represents the turning point in Russia’s transformation since the collapse of the Soviet Union 20 years ago."
Irina Zaslavskaya is the Program Officer for Europe and Asia at the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, a private, nonprofit organization established in 1987 to support electoral and other democratic institutions in emerging, evolving, and experienced democracies.
"Regardless of the final outcome, the March 4 presidential election represents the turning point in Russia’s transformation since the collapse of the Soviet Union 20 years ago. For the first time, the generation born after the dismantling of the Soviet system has come to the forefront of the political process in Russia, as evidenced by the impressive protest movement that emerged after the disputed Duma election in December. This highly vocal, innovative grassroots movement is a testament to the fact that the Facebook, Twitter and blogging generation is not shying away from its newly found role and responsibility in demanding accountability in governance.
"We are witnessing a new relationship emerging between the Kremlin and the Russian people, though one fraught with growing pains. For the first time in Russian history, citizens are demanding respect from their leaders and are not content simply to abstain from political discourse out of apathy, cynicism or fear when they feel their opinions are not being taken into consideration. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin may be returning as Russia’s president after March 4, but he is going to lead a new country that is still finding a balance between rising citizen expectations and government accountability.
"Although the road ahead will be difficult, the process has already begun and is irreversible. The process of change was set in motion not from the top, but from the bottom strata of society, which has the potential to create demands and expectations beyond what the current authorities are willing to meet. It is an exciting time to see the hopes of so many generations of democracy-minded Russians start to materialize; the next chapter in this long-running saga will be written after March 4."
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
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