US chain stores are just a few short days away from releasing their February same-store sales results. But early indications, including a number of strong early month-to-date tallies at Limited Brands and TJX, point to a strong first quarter.
J.P. Morgan's Brian Tunick expects two to three percent growth over the previous month. Even with tough comparisons even from a year ago, February sales are expected to have improved some 4 percent, and results this year compare to an 11 percent improvement since February 2010.
"Looking further into [the first quarter], March will be the toughest two-year comp of 13 percent, with April facing an 11 percent comp stack," Tunick says. "So overall, tough first quarter compares, but retailers are optimistic that the combination of the warm weather and earlier Easter will be supportive of strong sales."
Shares in a number of retailers have rallied, with the specialty retail group tracked by J.P. Morgan up seven percent, to the S&P's four percent gain over the past 30 days.
Below are Wall Street's consensus estimates for February same-store sales for a few stores:
- Buckle (BKE): February '12 S/S Up 6.3 Percent
- Gap (GPS): February '12 S/S Down 1.3 Percent
- Limited Brads (LTD): February '12 S/S Up 3.3 Percent
- Ross Stores (ROST): February '12 S/S Up 2.9 Percent
- TJX (TJX): February '12 S/S Up 2.8 Percent
- Wet Seal (WTSLA): February '12 S/S Down 8.0 Percent
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