This is a useful reminder from Dan Greenhaus at BTIG:
As attention turns to 2012, one client asked us today how we could see a negative GDP print in 2012 if the economy is going to grow by 4.0% in Q4. Ignoring the specifics and probabilities of such a call, we replied quite simply:
- GDP grew by 3.6% in Q2 2007, was negative in Q1 2008
- GDP grew by 8.0% in Q2 2000, was negative in Q1 2001
- GDP grew by 4.2% in Q1 1990, was negative in Q4 1990
- GDP grew by 8.6% in Q1 1981, was negative the very next quarter
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