The remarkable forecasting skills of the Troika and the immense decisions being taken on the back of these 'sacrosanct' projections need to be put into context. We are more than happy to do that... as the chart below shows, so far so bad as the Troika has pretty much nailed it on the 'most optimistic mean-reverting model' ever. Not wanting to steal the jam from Europe's donut but the forecasts are - quite evidently - a complete and utter joke. Going forward though, we are sure it's different this time...
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