As Greece inches toward default and the sufficiency of Europe's EFSF bailout fund is called into question, everyone's worst nightmares of Europe's debt debacle escalating to a systemic crisis could be nearing reality.
But that's not all.
North Korea is in transition, Iran is threatening to disrupt oil supplies, and the U.S. and Russia are facing huge presidential elections.
What follows are the forecasts and analysis of the some of the smartest, albeit most bearish, experts in finance.
They include bearish calls on stocks, the dollar, housing, Europe, China...basically everything.
The most accurate forecaster on the Street thinks stocks are going down
Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker was crowned the most accurate forecaster on Wall Street when the S&P 500 closed 2011 within a handful of points of his year-end target of 1,238.
His 2012 year end target calls for stocks to fall to 1,167. He sees a global economic slowdown hitting corporate profits hard.
But, when profits start to fall, they could DIVE
Morgan Stanley's Adam Parker reminded us that we've seen profits plummet more than 50% twice in the last decade.
"The 2001 recession saw a 13% revenue decline and a 57% EPS drawdown. The 2008 recession saw a 14% revenue decline and a 51% EPS hit, peak-to-trough...If prior recessions prove relevant to next year’s economy, $54 to $68 in EPS in 2012 would be a more likely range than the $112 that the bottom-up consensus estimates currently embed."
An eerie technical pattern is predicting the S&P plunges to 935
Mary Ann Bartels, Bank of America's Head of Technical and Market Analysis, published a note before Christmas titled Santa is not coming. "Last week the S&P 500 fell below its 50-day moving average which is the new level to watch – 1228. A failure to move above and hold the 50-day moving average confirms to us that we have already begun to enter the phase of testing the October lows near 1100-1074. This pattern is becoming eerily similar to 2008 into 2009. A base building process has been underway since August but we have maintained the belief that the lows still need to be tested and undercuts to 985- 935 are possible (50% probability) as part of this process."
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
Please follow Money Game on Twitter and Facebook.
See Also:
- Michelle Meyer's Housing Outlook For 2012
- 16 Fresh Insights That Challenged What We Thought We Knew About Investing
- The Euro Hit A 16-Month Low Against The Dollar